| https://mailchi.mp/worldpoliticsreview/colombias-security-crisis-comes-roaring-back?e=dce79b1080 |
| CDU leader Friedrich Merz speaks at the North Rhine-Westphalia state party conference, in Hurth, Germany, Oct. 28, 2023 (DPA photo by Christoph Reichwein via AP Images). |
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Europe: Hours after exit polls showed the Christian Democratic Union had won Germany’s elections, party leader and chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz said it should be Europe’s priority to “achieve independence” from the United States, and that the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump is “largely indifferent to the fate of Europe.” (Financial Times) |
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Our Take: Since Trump took office a little more than a month ago, Merz’s comments are some of the most definitive to come from a (soon-to-be) European leader in favor of shifting away from the trans-Atlantic alliance. The developments of the past two weeks in particular have stirred enormous debate about the extent to which Trump intends to abandon the close U.S. alliance with Europe. |
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Those debates are not settled, but Merz’s comments suggest that Trump’s intentions may not matter: If European leaders believe they are on their own now, they will act accordingly. The fact that the soon-to-be-leader of Europe’s largest economy—who also happens to be a longtime Atlanticist—said as much outright signals that is now the case. In fact, Merz even went a step further, suggesting that Europe may have to seek a replacement for NATO as its primary defensive alliance. |
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To be sure, European leaders have far from given up on the United States under Trump. French President Emmanuel Macron is currently in Washington, where he is seeking some semblance of diplomatic normalcy. More urgently, Macron is pushing for a spot for Europe at the negotiating table regarding the war in Ukraine, which enters its fourth year today, the third anniversary of Russia’s all-out invasion. |
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Still, even as Macron works Trump, other European leaders are preparing for U.S. support for Ukraine to dwindle. And at this point, that scenario looks far more likely. The feud between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has continued to escalate, and Zelenskyy has refused to agree to the Trump administration’s demands for billions in Ukrainian natural resources without U.S. security guarantees. Meanwhile, the U.S. continued to appease Russia by pushing for changes to a planned G7 statement and U.N. resolution marking the anniversary. |
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In stark contrast, a host of top officials—including European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and the leaders of several countries—are currently in Kyiv to signal continued European support for Ukraine. Meanwhile, the EU’s top diplomat is reportedly coordinating a military aid package for Kyiv worth more than $20 billion, highlighting Europe’s mad-dash effort to step up as more leaders assume they cannot count on the U.S. anymore. |
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Indeed, they will likely welcome Merz’s comments, especially as they signal that he wants to return Germany to its leadership role on the continent. |